First, they are calling her the "accidental supervisor," because her meager first-place vote totals in her district added up to such a small percentage of the overall vote. And second, they say she won't have much influence on the board because she doesn't come in with a mandate.
Neither theory is right. Cohen may not have rung up a huge vote total, but given the ranked-choice voting system, she played the percentages to perfection - broadening out her support, pulling in second- and third-choice preferences, and getting a boost as other candidates were eliminated.
As far as being marginalized by the board, the opposite is true. Like Jane Kim in District Six, she will take office in January unencumbered by political IOUs. She can make her own deals, carve out her own niche, and be a critical swing vote.
"Yeah," Cohen said. "But the downside is, I can only be unencumbered once."
She's right. Soon enough she'll have to pick her causes, align herself with people and groups, and lay down a voting record. Every group will make an offer, and every supervisor will have a pitch. The battle for Cohen's political soul has begun.
Personally, I'd go with local political pollster and moderate campaign director David Latterman, who worked with Scott Wiener in District Eight. After watching the far-left supervisors beat up on Board of Supervisors President David Chiu - formerly their ally - Latterman thinks it is time for Chiu to man up and cut the ties.
Far-left supervisors "have never been his friends," Latterman said. "They used him. David has always been reluctant to control his own destiny, but his natural place is in the middle."
That's where Cohen comes in. Generally considered moderate, she could align herself with Chiu - the only sitting supervisor to endorse her - and Kim, an old friend of Chiu's. With four moderates to their right and four far-left supes on the other side, they'd be the make-it-or-break-it bloc for every issue. It is a powerful place to be, and one that could do a lot for the chronically overlooked Bayview-Hunters Point area.
"We've got the most room to build, and the amount of land development that is going to take place (a proposed 10,000 homes) is huge," Cohen said. "But we also have the highest unemployment. That's the best part about this, the influence we will have for District 10."
That's if Cohen is considered a true representative of the district. Frankly, this election, with the ranked-choice confusion, raises questions. After no candidate could be declared a winner when first-place votes were counted, it took 19 runs of redistributing second and third choices to declare Cohen the winner. But she had just 4,173 of the 19,669 votes cast, or 21 percent. In other words, 79 percent of the ballots in the district did not even include her name.
"I do believe the District 10 race will be a great case study for some policy school," Cohen said. "I can't wait for the Harvard Review to weigh in. But I play with whatever system we have."
As Latterman points out, Cohen carried the day because she did a good job of getting second- and third-choice votes across the district. Tony Kelly, one of the early leaders, was very strong in Potrero Hill, but not in Hunters Point.
"What we quickly realized was that District 10 was very balkanized," Latterman said. "Malia got a little play in a lot of places as opposed to getting a lot of play in a few places."
That support, combined with the boost when African American candidates DeWitt Lacy and Lynette Sweet were dropped from the ranked-choice count, put Cohen over the finish line. Now the question is: Will she fall on the left or on the right?
"Are you kidding?" she said. "You think I am going to tell you and ruin all the shock and awe when I declare? I'm going to let you speculate."
Along with everyone else in City Hall.
C.W. Nevius' column appears Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday. E-mail him at cwnevius@sfchronicle.com.
For more election-related news and information, visit our California Elections 2010 page.
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