Brown leads Whitman by 10 points, Field Poll says

With election day on Tuesday, Brown holds a 49 to 39 percent lead over the former eBay CEO in the race, with 5 percent of voters favoring other candidates and 7 percent undecided, the poll showed. The Field poll last month showed the two candidates in a virtual tie.

"I don't think voters have warmed up to Meg Whitman," said Field Poll director Mark DiCamillo.

When Whitman began her first major advertising blitz in March, 40 percent of state voters had a favorable view of her and 27 percent viewed her negatively. Now, after investing $142 million of her own money and raising and spending millions more, her unfavorable ratings have nearly doubled, to 51 percent, the poll found.

"That's not effective advertising," DiCamillo said. "With all that money, she's never been able to increase the number of voters who view her favorably. She didn't make the sale."

Brown, the state attorney general and former two-term governor who also served eight years as Oakland's mayor, holds formidable leads among three voter groups considered crucial to the contest: Among Latinos, he leads Whitman by 30 points, while holding 16-point leads over Whitman among women and independent voters, the poll found.

Surprising development

That's surprising in part because "people were toying with the idea of voting for Whitman in September," DiCamillo said - particularly women, who were being wooed by a Republican running to be the state's first female governor.

But one of the female voters contacted by the Field Poll for the latest survey said Whitman's outreach, while extensive, wasn't convincing enough.

"It would be very exciting to have the first female governor, but I don't think she is the right one," said Michelle Hlubinka, 37, of Alameda, who declines to state her party affiliation. "There is a certain skill in running eBay, but I don't think it's the same skill set that you'd need to be governor."

Hlubinka, who is education director for a publishing company, was disturbed when Whitman acknowledged that she failed to vote in several elections in the past three decades, saying she was too busy raising her two sons.

"She might be a little naive to be governor," Hlubinka added. "I have two sons, and I vote. It's the least you can do."

Brown's strong showing

Brown leads formidably with women and has erased Whitman's earlier leads among white voters and males; he now leads all categories in gender and age, the poll showed. Men favor Brown by four points, while he leads Whitman by 11 points among voters 18-39 years old and by 13 points among voters 50-64 years old, the poll showed.

Since the last Field Poll on the race in September, when the candidates were tied at 41 percent each, the Whitman campaign's multimillion-dollar investment in TV and radio advertisements has had virtually no negative effect on Brown's numbers.

From Sept. 1 to Oct. 15, Whitman spent $38 million to Brown's $28 million. In roughly the same period, the Field Poll found, Whitman's negative rating increased from 45 to 51 percent, while Brown's unfavorable rating remained at 47 percent.

The new Field Poll, taken among 1,501 registered voters - including 1,092 who have voted by mail or are considered likely to vote on Tuesday - showed Brown with a big edge among absentee voters, who are usually considered more conservative.

More than half of all state voters say they expect to vote by mail. Among those, 48 percent are backing Brown to 40 percent for Whitman, the poll found.

Early voters for Brown

Among the 1 in 5 who said they have already cast ballots, 48 percent were for Brown and 41 percent for Whitman, the poll found.

And among those likely to vote in person at their local precincts on Tuesday, Brown held an even larger advantage, 49 to 38 percent, the poll found.

Richard Bever, a 62-year-old voter from Sonoma who declines to state a party affiliation, said he is voting for Brown, who served as governor from 1975 to 1983, because "he's done it before and he knows how government works."

Bever, a retired accountant, added: "I don't like Meg Whitman. I don't like any of her ideas, and I don't think there is anything that she could do to help us in our state."

The poll was taken Oct. 14-26 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points overall.

E-mail the writers at cmarinucci@sfchronicle.com and jgarofoli@sfhchronicle.com.

For more election-related news and information, visit our California Elections 2010 page.

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